Week 7 · 427 lines modeled · first kickoff Sun, Oct 25
The numbers before
the narrative.
Every player prop on the board, run through a simulation of how the game actually scores — then filtered down to the handful where the market looks wrong. Take what's useful, argue with the rest.
The market sets the number here, not us. We take the posted line as the market's coin flip, stretch our simulation until it agrees, and then lean back toward our own view by just 10%. Tested against 614 real Week 1 props, that lean tied the betting line — so read any call here as a lean, not an edge, until the record says otherwise. Break-even is 53.5%, assuming -115, because the feed gives us lines without prices. What we still do not have: snap counts, target share, routes run, or injury news. So when our raw projection disagrees wildly with a line, that is a stale input on our side and the row gets flagged rather than sold to you. Nothing here is advice, and a handful of two-point edges is a reason to find the games interesting, not a reason to bet.
This Week's Calls
curatedNo calls published yet this week. The model's raw leaders are below, and the full board is on All Props.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Over | Edge | Call |
|---|
Got one you like better?
Post it to the family board so everyone can see it — and so we can all find out who was right.