Correlation Lab

A parlay is usually priced as if its legs were independent — multiply the two numbers, done. That is right for two unrelated games and wrong for two props in the same one, because both legs are really bets on how that game goes. Write the game script as a hidden variable and the honest joint becomes a weighted average over the ways the game could play out. The gap between those two numbers is the whole idea.

It also works for one bet at a time. Type in the line and the price you are actually being offered — teased, boosted, or just moved since we pulled it — and it re-reads the probability straight off the simulation and tells you what the number is worth.

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