Week 7 · updated Oct 24, 5:32 PM
The Whole Board
Every prop we can model, sorted by how far the market sits from our simulation. Filter it however you like, switch how it's laid out, and click any line to see the simulated distribution behind it.
The market sets the number here, not us. We take the posted line as the market's coin flip, stretch our simulation until it agrees, and then lean back toward our own view by just 10%. Tested against 614 real Week 1 props, that lean tied the betting line — so read any call here as a lean, not an edge, until the record says otherwise. Break-even is 53.5%, assuming -115, because the feed gives us lines without prices.
Position
Market
Game
View248 lines
No calls this week — and that is a real answer. Every line here is priced close enough to our own read that we have nothing to add. That is the normal outcome against a market this liquid, and being able to say it is the whole point of anchoring to the market: the old version of this model could never find a quiet week, which is precisely how you could tell it was broken. The distributions below are still worth reading.
| Player | Shape | Line | Model | Over | Edge | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Daniel Jones QB · Passing yards · IND @ MIN | 188.5 | 191.5 | 54% | +0.4% | PASS | |
Kyler Murray QB · Passing yards · IND @ MIN | 210.5 | 207.6 | 47% | -0.4% | PASS | |
Patrick Mahomes QB · Passing yards · KC @ SEA | 220.5 | 223.3 | 53% | -0.5% | PASS | |
Deshaun Watson QB · Passing yards · CLE @ TEN | 208.5 | 206.2 | 48% | -1.1% | PASS | |
Jake Ferguson TE · Receptions · DAL @ PHI | 2.5 | 2.3 | 52% | -1.4% | PASS | |
Christian McCaffrey RB · Rush + rec yards · SF @ ATL | 112.5 | 110.4 | 48% | -1.5% | PASS | |
Chase Brown RB · Rush + rec yards · CIN @ BAL | 66.5 | 67.8 | 52% | -1.6% | PASS | |
Josh Jacobs RB · Rush + rec yards · GB @ DET | 64.5 | 65.6 | 52% | -1.6% | PASS | |
Tony Pollard RB · Rushing yards · CLE @ TEN | 67.5 | 65.9 | 48% | -1.7% | PASS | |
Alvin Kamara RB · Rush + rec yards · PIT VS NO | 32.5 | 33.3 | 52% | -1.7% | PASS | |
Christian McCaffrey RB · Carries · SF @ ATL | 15.5 | 15.1 | 48% | -1.8% | PASS | |
Jaylen Warren RB · Carries · PIT VS NO | 14.5 | 15.3 | 48% | -1.9% | PASS | |
Tyler Allgeier RB · Rushing yards · DEN @ ARI | 29.5 | 28.8 | 49% | -2.0% | PASS | |
Greg Dulcich TE · Receptions · MIA @ NYJ | 2.5 | 2.5 | 51% | -2.0% | PASS | |
Kyren Williams RB · Rush + rec yards · LAR @ LV | 99.5 | 98.0 | 49% | -2.0% | PASS | |
Matthew Stafford QB · Passing yards · LAR @ LV | 258.5 | 260.1 | 51% | -2.0% | PASS | |
Adonai Mitchell WR · Receptions · MIA @ NYJ | 2.5 | 2.5 | 51% | -2.1% | PASS | |
Bijan Robinson RB · Carries · SF @ ATL | 18.5 | 18.0 | 49% | -2.1% | PASS | |
Dak Prescott QB · Passing yards · DAL @ PHI | 265.5 | 263.9 | 49% | -2.1% | PASS | |
Chase Brown RB · Receptions · CIN @ BAL | 3.5 | 3.4 | 51% | -2.1% | PASS | |
Malik Willis QB · Carries · MIA @ NYJ | 6.5 | 6.0 | 49% | -2.1% | PASS | |
Mike Washington Jr. RB · Rushing yards · LAR @ LV | 25.5 | 25.0 | 49% | -2.1% | PASS | |
Ashton Jeanty RB · Receptions · LAR @ LV | 3.5 | 3.4 | 51% | -2.2% | PASS | |
Jaylen Warren RB · Rush + rec yards · PIT VS NO | 95.5 | 94.0 | 49% | -2.2% | PASS | |
Justin Jefferson WR · Receiving yards · IND @ MIN | 73.5 | 72.1 | 49% | -2.2% | PASS | |
Jonah Coleman RB · Rushing yards · DEN @ ARI | 19.5 | 18.9 | 49% | -2.2% | PASS | |
Jaylen Warren RB · Rushing yards · PIT VS NO | 64.5 | 63.3 | 49% | -2.3% | PASS | |
George Holani RB · Rush + rec yards · KC @ SEA | 27.5 | 26.9 | 49% | -2.3% | PASS | |
Christian Watson WR · Receiving yards · GB @ DET | 77.5 | 75.7 | 49% | -2.3% | PASS | |
Chuba Hubbard RB · Carries · TB @ CAR | 17.5 | 16.9 | 49% | -2.3% | PASS | |
Deshaun Watson QB · Rushing yards · CLE @ TEN | 30.5 | 29.9 | 49% | -2.3% | PASS | |
Drake London WR · Receiving yards · SF @ ATL | 83.5 | 81.8 | 49% | -2.3% | PASS | |
Caleb Douglas WR · Receptions · MIA @ NYJ | 2.5 | 1.8 | 51% | -2.3% | PASS | |
Josh Jacobs RB · Rushing yards · GB @ DET | 50.5 | 51.3 | 51% | -2.3% | PASS | |
Sam Darnold QB · Passing yards · KC @ SEA | 222.5 | 221.5 | 49% | -2.3% | PASS | |
Kyren Williams RB · Rushing yards · LAR @ LV | 68.5 | 67.2 | 49% | -2.4% | PASS | |
Christian McCaffrey RB · Rushing yards · SF @ ATL | 60.5 | 59.4 | 49% | -2.4% | PASS | |
Kenyon Sadiq TE · Receptions · MIA @ NYJ | 2.5 | 1.8 | 51% | -2.4% | PASS | |
Bucky Irving RB · Rush + rec yards · TB @ CAR | 86.5 | 85.2 | 49% | -2.4% | PASS | |
Keenan Allen WR · Receiving yards · IND @ MIN | 42.5 | 41.6 | 49% | -2.4% | PASS |