Paper only · no money changes hands
The Paper Trail
Every week the model picks its own slip — 8 straight bets at one unit each, plus a two-leg and a three-leg parlay at 0.5 units — and it is written down before kickoff and never edited. Wins pay what the price says; a −110 bet returns 0.91 units and a loss costs a full one, which is why 50% is a losing record.
The market sets the number here, not us. We take the posted line as the market's coin flip, stretch our simulation until it agrees, and then lean back toward our own view by just 10%. Tested against 614 real Week 1 props, that lean tied the betting line — so read any call here as a lean, not an edge, until the record says otherwise. Break-even is 53.5%, assuming -115, because the feed gives us lines without prices.
The rule, fixed in advance
Highest edge first, minimum 1%, one bet per player, at most 2 from any single game, and only games that have not kicked off. No discretion, so there is nothing to argue with afterwards — and the low-confidence rows the board already flags are excluded before the sort. Week 2’s slip was selected before we found the calibration problem above, so treat it as a record of what the broken model picked rather than as a recommendation. It stays up and settles honestly, because deleting the first bad week is how a track record becomes a lie. The parlays are chosen independently of the straights, so the same player can turn up twice in a week. That concentrates the variance without changing what the slip is worth on average, and it is worth knowing before reading too much into any single bad week.Units
+1.54
Profit, flat staked.
ROI
19.3%
On 8.0 units risked.
Record
5–4
56% of settled bets
Open
1
Still to be played.
Bankroll
Week 2
locked Sep 17, 9:55 PM+1.54u| Bet | Price | Stake | Our % | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Trautman UNDER 9.5 Receiving yards · JAX @ DEN | -110 | 1.0u | 64% | open | — |
| Rome Odunze OVER 39.5 Receiving yards · MIN @ CHI | -110 | 1.0u | 64% | hit | +0.91 |
| Tyjae Spears UNDER 15.5 Receiving yards · PHI @ TEN | -110 | 1.0u | 64% | miss | -1.00 |
| Adonai Mitchell UNDER 2.5 Receptions · GB @ NYJ | -110 | 1.0u | 64% | miss | -1.00 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt UNDER 55.5 Rushing yards · WSH @ DAL | -110 | 1.0u | 64% | hit | +0.91 |
| Daniel Jones OVER 8.5 Rushing yards · IND @ KC | -110 | 1.0u | 64% | hit | +0.91 |
| Gunnar Helm UNDER 22.5 Receiving yards · PHI @ TEN | -110 | 1.0u | 64% | hit | +0.91 |
| Christian Watson UNDER 61.5 Receiving yards · GB @ NYJ | -110 | 1.0u | 64% | hit | +0.91 |
| 2-legTyjae Spears UNDER 15.5 Receiving yards · PHI @ TENSaquon Barkley OVER 1.5 Receptions | +264 | 0.5u | 47% | miss | -0.50 |
| 3-legTyjae Spears UNDER 15.5 Receiving yards · PHI @ TENGunnar Helm UNDER 22.5 Receiving yardsSaquon Barkley OVER 1.5 Receptions | +596 | 0.5u | 31% | miss | -0.50 |